People are generally bad at accepting the importance of context and chance. We fall prey to what the social psychologist Lee Ross called “the fundamental attribution error”-the tendency to ascribe success or failure to innate characteristics even when context is overwhelmingly important.
Because we underestimate how much variation can be caused simply by luck, we see patterns where none exist.
I’ve not been blogging much here lately. I’m glad to have a decade’s worth of posts to look back on but I’ve been conspicuously not